Analysts at MUFG Bank point out that assuming US dollar sentiment improves more broadly, some USD/JPY recovery is feasible but they consider the current correction could be a sign of the beginning of the end of the trend higher that began at the start of last year.
“Yields do continue to grind higher in Japan with today the 5-year JGB yield hitting – 0.015%, the highest level since the BoJ implemented its negative policy in January 2016. But the move is likely more a reflection of front-end rates in the US grinding higher than any fundamental shift in view in Japan. It will though along with the Reuters article create greater focus on the BoJ meeting next week.”
“The failure to test the 117.00 level is a clear bearish signal for USD/JPY. We had assumed dollar positive momentum would get us there before JPY recovery took hold. That failure and the fact that the market was short JPY means the prospect of a quick rebound is diminishing. We have long argued the case for a correction and it seems that has unfolded a little sooner than expected.”